INTO THE FERGHANA VALLEY, STEALTHILY

Russia is about to boost its military presence in Kyrgyzstan. There is no saying at this point what form it will take - establishment of another military base or expansion of the counter-terrorism center under the aegis of the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization.

These plans were revealed last weekend in the city of Osh by the visiting delegation of the Russian Duma under Andrei Kokoshin, Chairman of the CIS Committee of the lower house of the parliament. Shortly afterwards local newspaper Ekho Osha incited a diplomatic scandal. It ran a story on the rumors on the forthcoming increase of Russian military presence in the republic. Moreover, the newspaper referred to Modest Kolerov, Chief of the Directorate of the Russian presidential administration for regional and cultural contacts with foreign countries, who had also been in the delegation. Both countries immediately denounced the reports as false and having nothing to do with hard facts of life. Press service of acting president of Kyrgyzstan Kurmanbek Bakiyev announced that the problem had never even been brought up at the meeting of official delegations. Sources in the Defense Ministry of Russia told journalists that "as things stand, Russia does not contemplate any increase of its military presence in Central Asia."

Kolerov admitted, however, that establishment of new military bases in Kyrgyzstan had been discussed at the meeting with acting president. Moreover, it was official Bishkek itself that initiated the discussion.

A source in the presidential administration explained that Bakiyev had indeed said when the meeting was drawing to its end that he had no objections to establishment in the country of the counter-terrorism center of the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization or some other structure. The matter is still too raw to permit state officials on both sides to discuss it at length.

Kokoshin confirmed it. "When we were in Kyrgyzstan, some of its leaders came up with the suggestions to increase Russian military presence on the territory of the republic and particularly in Osh environs," he said. What with the tricky situation in the region and in the interests of regional security, Kokoshin is convinced that suggestions like that are to be taken with utmost seriousness. The lawmaker flatly refused to elaborate - for fear to disrupt the talks, a source close to him revealed. As for the Defense Ministry's denials of existence of the plans to boost military presence in Central Asia, the source is convinced that we could not expect anything better from so closed a structure.

In the meantime, Russian military experts found Kyrgyz acting president's suggestions quite logical and reasonable. According to Colonel Anatoly Tsyganok, Director of the Center of Military Forecasts, because of the lack of stability in the area within the Kokand - Ferghana - Namangan - Andizhan square the future counter-terrorism center could interact with the substantial army group of the Uzbek national army. It controls the Ferghana Valley at this point but is surely inadequate to deal with a rebellion or revolution. The expert is convinced that the peacekeeper brigade of the Volga-Urals Military District will be an ideal unit ideal for the new base. "It will look great from the PR angle," Tsyganok said. "Acting on requests from Bishkek and Tashkent, capitals of the countries that belong to the Shanghai Organization of Cooperation, Russian peacekeepers move out to help Kyrgyz and Uzbek border guards, to maintain order, and create a buffer zone between the warring sides."

Officials of the secretariat of the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization deny any requests from official Bishkek to establish a Russian military base or any forces of the Organization in Osh. To quote Secretary Nikolai Bordyuzha's Press Secretary Vitaly Strugovets, "it is Kyrgyz security ministers who used to suggest establishment of a counter-terrorism center of the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization in Osh... Should we get an official request now, the secretariat will get down to the matter. Besides, there is a perfect infrastructure in Osh, there is a military airfield there not far from the civilian. We can airlift shipments and personnel there."

As for the attitude of the population towards the return of Russian military bases, Russian Consul Yuri Ivanov says that the locals do not mind it in the least. "Officials and everyone I met long to have the Russian military back," Ivanov explained. "The impression is that the republic will only benefit."

Nezavisimaya Gazeta, May 24, 2005, pp. 1, 5

© Translated by Ferghana.ru