TERRITORY AND POLITICS

Ikbol Mirsaitov is a political scientist, expert of the Southern Division of the Kyrgyz Presidential International Institute of Strategic Studies, author of the monograph "Formation of Political Islam in the Ferghana Valley". He claims that a sovereign state may appear in the Ferghana Valley.

Question: How would you appraise the political situation in Kyrgyzstan after March 24?

Ikbol Mirsaitov: March 24 displayed weakness of the regime on the one hand and disinclination to shed blood on the other. I would not call it a revolution, you know. In revolutions, it is one formation replacing another, there are some innovations, there is progress... What we see in Kyrgyzstan, however, is replacement of elites and that is all. The elite Askar Akayev once displaced is moving back into the corridors of power. Everyone who moves in to replace Akayev's men is someone once ousted by his policy. That the system remains the same is clear from the actions of law enforcement agencies. The Traffic Police are extorting bribes just where and when they have always extorted them... What counts, however, is that the people knows now that it can defend its rights.

In any case, we should remember that the country is in a transition period now. It is something the Soviet Union experienced when Leonid Brezhnev died to be replaced with Konstantin Chernenko and Yuri Andropov. So, by analogy, we are facing a choice between Chernenko and Andropov now. I do not mean that both are geriatrics, I mean their nature. Say, Kurmanbek Bakiyev is a Chernenko and Felix Kulov is an Andropov. The presidential election will be the time to make the choice between progress and regression.

Question: Can the presidential election split Kyrgyzstan into southern and northern parts the way analysts predict?

Ikbol Mirsaitov: So far as I know, a lot of Northerners back Bakiyev. Residents of Bishkek say that they want Bakiyev. In the south - and I'm saying it because I know what I'm talking about from personal experience, from numerous conversations with locals - the population supports Kulov. In any case, there are approximately 7 candidates for president now. It is going to be a hot autumn indeed.

Question: How do you think Uzbekistan will respond?

Ikbol Mirsaitov: I'd say it is in Uzbekistan's own interest to have Kyrgyzstan elect its president as soon as possible. Because the situation may get out of control otherwise. President of Uzbekistan is one worried man nowadays. He fears that the wave of protests in Kyrgyzstan may reach Uzbekistan.

Question: Is that possible? What are the chances?

Ikbol Mirsaitov: Let us consider facts. When we met with a representative of Hizb-ut-Takhrir from Karasuu, he said that he had been approached by some men from Uzbekistan seeking help from the party. There is no saying at this point what kind of forces they represented... Still, sources from the Interior Ministry say that ethnic Kyrgyzes from Uzbekistan did participate in the events in Kyrgyzstan this March. That's the first nuance. The second. Analysts agree that the authorities of Uzbekistan may provoke ethnic clashes just to use force and thus pacify the situation. It may be an Uzbek-Tajik clash in Bukhara and Samarkand, and to some extent in the Ferghana Valley too... Sure, the international community and particularly Iran may protest. After all, there are lots of Turkish-speakers in Uzbekistan. Who knows, perhaps a ploy like that is being invented to enable the authorities to introduce the state of emergency regime.

On the other hand, the people of Uzbekistan would not be beaten into submission anymore. Even drivers in Uzbekistan say nowadays, "As soon as someone pulls off something, we will back them." The population is ready to back someone but does not yet know who to back. The recent events in Dzhizak, Markhamat, and Kokand indicate that the population can and will resist the authorities. There must be some masterminds behind what happened in these regions. Left to its own devices, the people cannot mobilize itself. There is the widespread opinion that the revolution will begin in the Ferghana Valley. Time will show. Perhaps, everything will begin simultaneously in Tashkent and Ferghana.

Russian analysts' fears that the north of Kyrgyzstan will be absorbed by Kazakhstan and the south by Uzbekistan are absurd. Because the Ferghana Valley itself may proclaim sovereignty from all three states and announce itself an independent state. Why? Because leaders of these countries like Akayev have forgotten it completely. The Ferghana Valley is a critical mass with the population amounting to 10 million, the critical mass the national leaders have forgotten all about. All political elites that came from the Ferghana Valley have been displaced - and these are the men who could keep the Ferghana factor in hand.

Remember the 1990's when criminal and religious authorities were removed - brutally - from political life? That was how the authorities of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan put into motion the processes that are under way these days - the processes of merging of crime and religion. Even the report drawn by the US Department of State recognizes it. We are about to be saddled with an oppositionist critical mass. And that's dangerous. It may even get out of control. This possibility cannot be ruled out. Shortsightedness with regard to the Ferghana Valley on the part of the three states may result in social tension. The situation being what it is, these leaders should find some method of abating protest potential in the Ferghana Valley. International organizations and volunteers from the peoples of the valley should be involved in the process. They should work to up economic potential of the area and on the political consensus.

Question: Who do you think official Tashkent will prefer for president of Kyrgyzstan?

Ikbol Mirsaitov: It does not matter as long as order is maintained here.

Question: What do you mean by "order"? No "extremists", "religious radicals", or "the third forces" in the Kyrgyz part of the Ferghana Valley?

Ikbol Mirsaitov: I mean that Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan need common interests to pursue. It is common knowledge after all that when Akayev reigned in Kyrgyzstan, Uzbek secret services had free and unrestricted access to the territory of the country. They could even arrest citizens of Kyrgyzstan and take them to Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan would dearly like the next president not to disagree with the policy of official Tashkent.

Question: Do you think the Kyrgyz scenario may be repeated in Tajikistan - even despite the bitter experience of the civil war?

Ikbol Mirsaitov: It is possible because religious powers of the Sogdi region are extremely critical of Emomali Rakhmonov's policy. He himself has castigated religious powers ever since 2003.яSome leaders of the Party of Islamic Revival of Tajikistan are already in jail. All field commanders, all leaders of the United Tajik Opposition are in jail. All of that proves that Rakhmonov applies pressure - or is about to apply it - to the Party of Islamic Revival. Uzbeks account for almost 40% of the Sogdi population - that much has to be remembered too. It may spark destabilization. There are lots of border and other suchlike problems in the region. The Tajik-Uzbek relations are another factor not to be dismissed. Why can the experience of the civil war be discounted? Because it was a power struggle then, but now it may be a war over spheres of influence in the Ferghana Valley.

Question: You claim that a sovereign state may appear in the Ferghana Valley. Is it likely indeed?

Ikbol Mirsaitov: Do you remember what the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan wanted? Ferghana, Andizhan, Namangan, and Osh will be included too. Not to mention Khodzhent, Batken, and Dzhalabad. Even the underworld may come up with its own aspirations. It has its own hierarchy too, you know.

Question: Do ethnic roots of the hypothetical leader of the Ferghana Valley bear any importance?

Ikbol Mirsaitov: There are 80 ethnic group residing there nowadays. A lot, right? Most of the are Uzbeks, and the leader will be an Uzbek too. But that is just a hypothesis. Merely because things may get out of hand. If they do, someone like Takhir Yuldash or Abdullo Nuri will certainly come forth.