"The Ukrainian revolution resembles the Georgian, and that it its turn resembles the Yugoslavian," Kommersant wrote. "It seems that the post-Socialist world is back in the period of velvet revolutions. The next presidential elections in the Commonwealth are slated in Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan." Here is a slightly abridged text of the article.

Poppy Revolution

Velvet revolutions worry President of Kyrgyzstan Askar Akayev who has repeated one and the same thesis again and again ever since installation of the new regime in Georgia. "The Rose Revolution in Georgia was a challenge to all CIS countries. Proliferation of the technology of velvet revolutions aims to weaken the Commonwealth," Akayev said presenting his book "Thinking Of The Future With Optimism: Ideas On Foreign Policy And The World" in Moscow.

Akayev became the president in 1990 and was re-elected in 1995 and again 2000. His latest triumph was castigated by the opposition that challenged his right to run for president for the third time. The Constitutional Court sided up with Akayev, however, and announced that he had been elected the president the first time in line with provisions of the Soviet Constitution.

Kyrgyzstan will elect its president in October 2005. The opposition has already appealed to the Constitutional Court to rule whether or not Akayev may run for president again. The Constitutional Court has not got down to the matter yet, but an affirmative answer is quite possible. Akayev initiated a nationwide referendum in 2003 and amended the Constitution. The opposition began talking about how Akayev intended to run for president again - this time in accordance with the new Constitution. Opposition activists claim that the excuse has already been invented: Akayev may be asked to run for president by public organizations or the next Kyrgyz World Kurultai (congress). Akayev will grant them the request and run for president again.

For the time being, Akayev himself denies any presidential aspirations. It goes without saying that everyone in Bishkek is convinced that even should Akayev keep his word, he will certainly try to pass the reigns on to somebody close to him. There are the persistent rumors in Kyrgyzstan that Professor Mairam Akayeva, the First Lady, may become the next president. She is running for a seat on the parliament allegedly to accomplish that, and the parliament will immediately elect her the chair. Akayeva will use the new position as a jumping board afterwards. There is also the opinion that Akayev would like to be succeeded by his elder son Aidar, but Aidar is too young for that (he is about 30) and his elevation to the pinnacle of political power in the country will certainly cause a public outcry.

There is one other possible scenario. Akayev may do what his Ukrainian counterpart Leonid Kuchma did and initiate changes in the Constitution expanding powers of the prime minister and making the president a figurehead. He may resign as the president then and become the premier.

The Kyrgyz opposition would have none of that. It is convinced that a new regime should be installed in the country in 2005. The opposition even has a candidate. He is Felix Kulov, Akayev's ardent supporter in the early 1990's who eventually became the president's bitter political enemy. In 2001, Kulov was sentenced to 7 years imprisonment for "abuse of power when heading the State Security Ministry in 1997 and 1998". He was found guilty of embezzlement and sentenced to 10 years more afterwards.

Even though the opposition leader is jailed, he is regarded as one of the major candidates for presidency. Moreover, Kulov is viewed as such both in Kyrgyzstan and in the West which will do its best to have the election in Kyrgyzstan in 2005 free and fair. The West and the local opposition will not recognize the election otherwise, and mass protests staged by the opposition two years ago already resulted in a government crisis in Kyrgyzstan. Akayev had to offer the opposition compromises then and even fired the prime minister. In 2005, however, concessions may prove insufficient.

Tulip Revolution

"Georgia yesterday, Ukraine today, Kazakhstan tomorrow," an activist of Kazakh opposition said at a protest rally in Kiev in early December. (Delegation of the Kazakh opposition was dispatched to Ukraine to study methods of the so called Chestnut Revolution.) Hearing it, organizers of the rally screamed, "Dictators Nazarbayev and Kuchma - get out!" and 300,000 protesters repeated the slogan.

Election of the president of Kazakhstan is scheduled for early 2006. There is the widespread opinion in the country, however, that the election will take place ahead of the schedule, in 2005. A serious political crisis is fomenting in Kazakhstan. The ruling regime is split. The opposition is becoming noticeably more active.

The Kazakh opposition is encouraged by what happened in Georgia and is happening in Ukraine. It even united and formed the Coordinating Council of Democratic Forces (CCDF). CCDF intends to nominate a single candidate for president.

In October, parliament chairman Zharmakhan Tuyakbai (the third senior state official in the country) condemned the authorities of falsification of the parliamentary election and resigned from the parliament and upper echelons of the ruling party Otan led by President Nursultan Nazarbayev himself. The authorities were shocked by the mutiny of Tuyakbai, one of Nazarbayev's closest accomplices who topped the list of the ruling party in the parliamentary election. It was shocked again shortly afterwards when the ex-chairman joined upper echelons of the opposition. Local observers say that the seasoned politician would not have abandoned the third most important position in the country just for the fun of it. He is clearly aspiring for the topmost position.

It should be noted that Tuyakbai was elected chairman of the opposition council at the meeting that took place in the settlement of Shiderty. The meeting was chaired by Galymzhan Zhakiyanov, one of the most charismatic opposition leaders jailed by the authorities two years ago. (Zhakiyanov lives in the settlement in exile, now.) Zhakiyanov became a symbol of resistance to the regime. One million Kazakhs signed the petition for his release, and collection of signatures on the petition became the action that enabled the opposition to unite.

The regime offered Zhakiyanov a deal at first: freedom in return for abandoning politics. Zhakiyanov turned it down. Four new criminal proceedings were instigated against the opposition activist - to no avail. Secret services spared neither time nor effort to unearth at least something to charge Zhakiyanov with and only found "abuse of power in the position of Pavlodar governor when he moved a warehouse. This move cost the state $12,000." In fact, it was Zhakiyanov who nominated Tuyakbai for CCDF chairman. Tuyakbai will probably be nominated for president now, consolidating the protest electorate and some supporters of the regime.

There is another vital precondition for a velvet revolution in Kazakhstan. Putting the president of Kazakhstan under pressure, the West demands actual democratization of the country. The United States and EU warned Astana a year ago that attitude towards it would depend on two key conditions: Zhakiyanov's release and organization of a truly democratic election. Not one of the demands have been met yet.

Last but not the least, there is one other factor at play and this factor may facilitate settlement of the crisis in Kazakhstan. Nazarbayev is the only CIS president who found himself in the focus of a major corruption scandal on the international scale. His former adviser James Giffen is facing trial in the United States. The prosecution claims that Giffen transacted $78 million worth of bribes from American oil companies to Nazarbayev and his inner circle. The sentence will be passed next January, and the verdict may become a catalyst of the velvet revolution in Kazakhstan.

Unlike the potential revolutions in Kyrgyzstan and Moldova, the Kazakh one has a name. It is known semi-officially as Tulip Revolution. "The authorities are scared by what is happening in Ukraine. That's clear from their actions, reports in the media they control, and statements of court political scientists," leaders of the Kazakh opposition say. "They are racking their brains over how they can avoid a nationwide election of the president. It seems that some scenarios have already been drafted. The authorities may amend the Constitution and have the president elected by the parliament, not by the people. That is why whether or not there is the Tulip Revolution in Kazakhstan depends on the people and the authorities."