13.09.2004 12:53 msk

Dosym Satpayev

Activization of terrorism in the last decade forces numerous research organizations and centers to gauge the degree of threats in various regions of the world. Analysis of the existing tendencies leads to the grim conclusion that Central Asia may become the main target of international terrorism within bare years. Terrorist infrastructure is already being formed in the region.

A great deal of local and foreign extremist and terrorist organizations operate in Central Asia, nowadays. They include Moslem Brothers working through a network of organizations like Society of Social Reforms (outlawed in Russia, it was recently discovered to have a cell in the southern part of Kazakhstan). There are also organizations like the Committee of Asian Moslems, Hizb-ut-Tahrir al-Islami, Tabligi Jamaat, Adolat Uyushmasi, Islamic Party of East Turkestan, Center of Islamic Development, Islamic Movement of Turkestan (the most notorious of all Central Asian terrorist organizations, it was formed on the basis of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan), Tovba, and others. When the quantity finally gave way to quality and most of these organizations established relations of partnership - sometimes even with the help from international terrorist network - the whole region will find itself in trouble.

All these organization operate in Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan with various degrees of intensiveness and deploying different ways and means. A lot of factors facilitate their activeness in the region - impoverishment, corruption, unemployment, transparency of borders, ethnic friction, growth of the religious factor, presence of American military bases, pro-Western foreign policy of some countries of the region, and geopolitical closeness to the zones of political instability and conflicts in the Caucasus, Sinxuan-Uigur Autonomous District of China, Afghanistan, Mideast. All of that is making the region extremely vulnerable, the assumption which is confirmed by the civil war in Tajikistan in 1992-1997, two raids of armed gangs of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan to Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan in 1999 and 2000, terrorist acts in Kyrgyzstan, and terrorist acts in Uzbekistan in the spring and summer 2004.

Degrees of the risk of terrorism in countries of the region vary. If we try to chart a map of terrorist risks in Central Asian countries for the next five years with the help of the 5-level system of terrorist threat evaluation (low, alarming, threatening, high, and extreme) adopted in the United States, the following picture will take shape.

Kazakhstan

A common or alarming risk of a terrorist attack is typical of Kazakhstan. For the time being, terrorist organizations are absent from the territory of the republic, but some extremist movements are clearly becoming more and more active there. The matter concerns Hizb-ut-Tahrir and Tabligi Jamaat. Experts appraise the possibility of terrorist acts on the territory of Kazakhstan as average. Risk Evaluation Group conducted an opinion poll in Kazakhstan and discovered that 65% respondents await the beginning of terrorist acts in Kazakhstan within 5 years.

Hizb-ut-Tahrir is particularly active in Kazakhstan. In some episodes, terrorism and extremism in Kazakhstan are directed against nearby countries, mostly China and Uzbekistan. Investigating July terrorist acts on its territory, Uzbekistan made a statement to the effect that terrorists were trained in southern Kazakhstan. The information was never confirmed, but it certainly drew attention to the situation in southern regions of the country where a large Uzbek diaspora, transparency of borders, and the increase of illegal immigration from Uzbekistan may create favorable conditions for infiltration of Kazakhstan by terrorists from the nearby country. There is one other area vulnerable to a potential terrorist attack. The matter concerns the Caspian region where lots of Western and particularly American companies produce oil and gas. Terrorist acts in the area may lead to grave consequences indeed. At the same time, Kazakhstan may be more useful to terrorists as a transit territory. This assumption is actually confirmed by arrests there of activists of various radical organizations acting against the governments of Uzbekistan, China, and Russia.

Turkmenistan

The situation with the threat of terrorism in this country is anything but clear. There have been no serious episodes of extremism or terrorism in Uzbekistan until the attempt on the life of President Saparmurat Niyazov in November 2002. According to one of the hypotheses, Turkmen secret services themselves staged the assassination attempt to lay blame on opposition leaders. There is, however, the assumption that the attempt was organized by powerful circles of the Turkmen opposition with followers in the state apparatus and national secret services.

There are no extremist or terrorist organizations in Turkmenistan, or they are too small and insignificant because of the powerful repressive apparatus. All the same, the level of risk in Turkmenistan may be appraised as alarming because of the likeliness of existence of some underground groups of enemies of the Turkmenbashi who may decide to switch over to more resolute actions. Like Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan may serve as a transit territory for terrorists from Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Alarming (substantial) level of the risk of terrorism in typical of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. It is hardly surprising because the Ferghana Valley situated on the border of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan is the center of Central Asian extremism under the flag of Islam.

Kyrgyzstan

Several terrorist acts Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and the Islamic Movement of East Turkestan were blamed for took place in Kyrgyzstan in late 2002 and in 2003. Hizb-ut-Tahrir is particularly active on the territory of the republic. It mostly operates in southern regions of Kyrgyzstan. As far as it is currently known, Hizb-ut-Tahrir does not interact with the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan or Uigur terrorist organizations. According to some reports and specialists, most activists of the organization are ethnic Uzbeks. The ranks of the party have been swelling and include Kyrgyzes too. Local experts estimate Hizb-ut-Tahrir's numerical strength at about 2,000 activists, which makes it a second country after Uzbekistan where manpower of Hizb-ut-Tahrir is concerned. This is where the worst danger is hidden. Weakness of the political system of Kyrgyzstan and the low level of economic development of the country may eventually transform Hizb-ut-Tahrir into a powerful political forces that may decide to make use of the regional discord between Southerners and Northerners.

Tajikistan

As far as Tajikistan is concerned, most episodes of extremism and terrorism are direct corollaries of the civil war of 1992-1997. They have to do with actions of the irreconcilable opposition whose activists refused to lay down the arms and put an end to power struggle. All major groups of the irreconcilable opposition were done away with by early 2003. With the enforcement of the presidential power, the territory of the country became better controlled - save probably for the mountainous areas where (Uzbekistan claims) activists of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan still find shelter. In fact, it is Hizb-ut-Tahrir that is the worst headache for the authorities nowadays. This organization has undeniably upped its activeness in the northern regions of the country. Several citizens of Tajikistan accused of being involved in Hizb-ut-Tahrir's activities were detained in early 2004. On April 20, 2004, the Prosecutor General's Office released a statement on activities of a new extremist organization, Al-Baiat. The organization was blamed for torching the mosques whose imams were loyal to the government. It should be noted that the Prosecutor General's Office of Tajikistan does not call Al-Baiat a religious or political organization. It calls it a bunch of hooligans lacking any political motives. In the meantime, Tajik secret services suspect that this organization is financed from abroad and do not rule out the possibility that Al-Baiat has contacts with a namesake organization in Lebanon and the Islamic Movement of Turkestan.

Uzbekistan

Throughout Central Asia, extreme risk of terrorist is typical of Uzbekistan alone. Terrorist acts of the last several years confirm it clearly. It is Uzbekistan that is one of the major factors of instability for the whole region. Most extremist and terrorist organization in the region are out to topple the Uzbek regime. The situation is unlikely to improve. Unfortunately, the authorities of Uzbekistan prefer dealing with the effect rather than with the cause - pinning the blame for extremism and terrorism on Al Qaeda and not on weak economy or a repressive political system.

All of that generates serious doubts in the ability of the Regional Counter-Terrorism Center established within the framework of the Shanghai Organization of Cooperation to offer considerable assistance to Uzbekistan or to Central Asia as such. On the other hand, some analysts view the Shanghai Organization of Cooperation as a new provider of security which is prepared to offer counter-terrorism services to the countries of the region along with the Organization of the CIS Collective Security Treaty and NATO. Some Chinese experts assume that the war in Iraq will surely up the role of the Shanghai Organization of Cooperation in the war on terrorism, including Afghani terrorism, because the United States will find its attention glued to other regions.

Weak cooperation is the worst problem of counter-terrorism organizations operating in Central Asia. First and foremost, the matter concerns the Regional Counter-Terrorism Center and the Fast Response Collective Forces of the Organization of the CIS Collective Security Treaty. Cooperation with NATO, the organization steadily increasing its presence in the region, may become eventually necessary. As for the Regional Counter-Terrorism Center, it is rather a virtual organization of the no less illusory Commonwealth of Independent States. In any case, only a real crisis in Central Asian will make effectiveness and adequacy of this or that organization clear. Judging by the promised increase of terrorist activeness in the region, counter-terrorism organizations will be tested quite soon.

Alma-Ata

CENTRAL ASIAN TERRARIUM

Dosym Satpayev

Nezavisimaya Gazeta, No 196, September 13, 2004, pp. 9 - 12

© Translated by Ferghana.Ru