A three-year interim over, the Kyrgyz political system once again emulates the Russian political model typical of all Central Asian countries.

A referendum on the new Constitution took place in Kyrgyzstan on October 21. According to official estimates, it was adopted by 76.1% votes against 3.7%. Reassured by the outcome, President Kurmanbek Bakiyev immediately disbanded the parliament and set the date of the snap parliamentary election for December 16.

Since the middle of September Kyrgyzstan has been living by the 2003 Constitution, the Constitution that sparked the Tulip Revolution in March 2005 and toppled President Askar Akayev's regime. Amendment of the Constitution and a radical enhancement of the role of the parliament were one of the central promises of the revolutionary tandem formed by Bakiyev and Felix Kulov.

Once he became the president, however, Bakiyev promptly forgot all about being a revolutionary and promoter of parliamentarism. He became clearly reluctant to share the power with the parliament and prime minister (the Tulip Revolution elevated Kulov to the post but Bakiyev sacked him in early 2007). On the contrary, Bakiyev did his best to strengthen his own position. "This new variant of the Constitution is even more presidential than Akayev's Constitution was," Kyrgyz political scientist Nur Omarov said.

The opposition maintains that it was the Kremlin's political technologists who persuaded Bakiyev to initiate abolition of two previous constitutions (adopted in November and December 2006) by thee Constitutional Court on September 15 and proclaim a referendum on adoption of the new Constitution four days later.

"His speech was written by political technologists from Moscow, hence the undeniable resemblance to how things are in Moscow," Ar-Namys leader and ex-premier Kulov commented. He referred to the amended legislation in accordance with which the parliament would be elected by the proportional system and the entry barrier for political parties would be raised. The opposition views Bakiyev's eagerness to establish a political party of his own and have it carry the day in the snap parliamentary election as another confirmation that the Russian model is being emulated.

So unquestionably tailored to the president, the new Constitution would have stood no chance with the parliament. Aware of it, Bakiyev offered it for adoption at a referendum. In the meantime, the law "On referendums" requires endorsement of the outcome by the parliament and this is where the president may encounter problems. "Now that the parliament is disbanded by a presidential decree, there is nobody left in the country to endorse the outcome of the referendum. It follows that the referendum cannot be recognized as valid," ex-lawmaker Temir Sariyev said.

Bakiyev cannot help being in a hurry because his rating is rapidly declining. The revolutionary regime failed to live up to the expectations of the population and the latter is understandably vexed. There are also socioeconomic problems to be taken into account, and specifically the unbelievable price-rise that first and foremost affects bread and other foodstuffs. Seeing it all, the opposition is out to convince the population that the president initiates costly referendums instead of concentrating on pressing social and economic issues. Seething as they are over the catastrophic socioeconomic situation, distant fringe regions are particularly sympathetic with this point of view (Bishkek where the socioeconomic situation is somewhat better is more reserved).

In other words, whatever Bakiyev has been doing to strengthen presidential power in Kyrgyzstan may actually backfire and solidify positions of his political antagonists in the future parliament.

Furuh Usmonov, Kommersant-VLAST, October 28, 2007 © Translated by Ferghana.Rut>