"The pressure Russia is applying [to European countries] in the energy sphere is upsetting. The European Union is on a lookout for other sources of power and alternative oil and gas routes. I'd say it is a correct thing to do. Doing something else will be a mistake of the magnitude that permits mistakes like that to be made only once a century. This mistake will be fatal," Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek announced at the EU Energy Forum in Prague on October 23-24, 2006.

As far as the Czech premier is concerned, Russia is using oil and gas as an instrument in its geopolitical games.

Topolanek's statement does not really surprise the analysts that keep an eye on the EU policy. Determined to lessen its dependence on Russia in the energy sphere, the EU has been studying expansion of its clout with the Caucasus and Central Asia. Europe takes vivid interest in Central Asia as a potential store of energy resources. The road to Central Asian energy resources goes via Uzbekistan, a country that wields considerable influence with the region because Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan depend on it for gas and oil. In fact, some analysts suspect that Uzbekistan wields clout even with Turkmenistan.

Experts predict therefore that the EU will reconsider the sanctions against Uzbekistan.

Enraged by the events in Andijan in May 2005, the EU restricted military cooperation and trade with Uzbekistan and put twelve senior officials of the Uzbek government on the black list of undesirable persons in Europe. Hugo Mingarelli of the EU Central Asian Commission said that the issue of sanctions was to be discussed with the official Uzbek delegation in November 2006.

Andrei Grozin of the Department of Central Asia and Kazakhstan of the Institute of CIS Countries figures out that the EU will probably change its policy with regard to Uzbekistan at the meeting.

"The EU needs a diversified energy policy with many vectors in it. A key Central Asian country, Uzbekistan may become Europe's principal partner in major transport projects," Grozin said.

As far as the specialist concerned, the EU is interested in promotion of its "energy" plans and in maintenance of stability in Central Asia.

"Every second resident of Central Asia lives in Uzbekistan. Any emergency like a toppled regime or uprising somewhere in the periphery, and Uzbekistan itself may foment some serious conflicts in the region," Grozin said. "It does not take a genius to see that the country may disintegrate then. All of that will cause an exodus into neighbor states. That is why maintenance of stability in Central Asia is impossible without the so called Uzbek Factor taken into account. That's what make Uzbekistan an inevitable partner in establishment of energy contacts with Central Asia and promotion of regional security."

"All of that taken into consideration, the sarcasm that oil and gas prove more important than democracy is hardly appropriate in this particular case," Grozin concluded.

Uzbek opposition in the meantime is worried by the prospect that Europe may execute a political U-turn and become friends with Islam Karimov's regime.

Talib Yakubov, Uzbek dissenter and human rights activist living in Paris, discussed the matter with the Foreign Ministry of France. According to Yakubov, the human rights community insists on prolongation of anti-Uzbek sanctions and on their further stiffening.

"My meetings with representatives of the European Commission and deputies of the European Parliament convince me that there is no consolidated position with regard to Uzbekistan as yet," Yakubov said. "Germany has been lobbying interests of Uzbekistan in the hope to have all sanctions lifted. France in its turn makes an emphasis on the human rights and democracy as a counterweight to Germany's oil and gas angle. As I see it, France will suggest that the sanctions be retained. As for the stiffening of the sanctions, I'd say it's a sheer impossibility because Germany insists on cooperation with Uzbekistan too strongly..."

Yakubov believes that the EU may back Germany because of the importance of oil and gas to its society.

"There is one other nuance to be counted in. When I talked to deputies of the European Parliament, I found out that they do not know the first thing about President Karimov's policy and regime or about human rights abuses in Uzbekistan. Gullible Europeans think that a dialogue and kind treatment of Uzbekistan will persuade official Tashkent to launch the necessary political, economic, and social reforms. In the meantime, the reforms are the last thing Karimov's regime needs because democratic reforms will mean the collapse of authoritarianism in Uzbekistan."

Yakubov is convinced that Uzbekistan will never become a reliable partner as long as Karimov remains its leader. Once it regained sovereignty, Uzbekistan turned to Turkey first, then to South Korea, and finally to the United States. The outrage in Andijan put an end to the friendship with Washington, and Karimov turned to Russia.

"This is but a trick, a maneuver," Yakubov told Ferghana.Ru. "Talking to the German deputy foreign minister in Tashkent on July 10, Karimov announced in no uncertain terms that friendship or cooperation in Russia was not what he was interested in. That's the policy of the president of Uzbekistan for you..."

That Karimov's policy of cooperation is shifty and unreliable is hardly anything new. The German authorities, however, have always succeeded in retaining quite warm relations with official Tashkent. Promoting its geopolitical interests, Berlin angles for rapprochement with the Uzbek authorities. The latter, however, have always kept their distance implying at the same time that they have no objections to friendship with this country. If the EU proceeds with its "energy independence" scheme, Germany as Tashkent's main promoter in the EU will be able to count on a tasty slice of the Uzbek energy pie - albeit not for long.

It may only be added here that neither is the German leadership unanimous on the matter of relations with Uzbekistan. The government is leaning towards rapprochement but the Bundestag (parliament) insists on sanctions. Deputies of the Bundestag and European Parliament visited Uzbekistan not long ago to get firsthand knowledge of the state of affairs with human rights and democracy in this country. They said afterwards they intended to bring up the matter at the highest EU level.

In short, debates over the anti-Uzbek sanctions this November promise to be heated. Analysts believe, however, that the EU will reach a consensus and either lift the sanctions altogether or ease them.