Forthcoming presidential election constitutes the central intrigue of political life in Uzbekistan. January 9, 2007, will be exactly seven years since the last election of the national leader and nearly as long since his inauguration. Every term of office for presidents lasts seven years by the amended the Constitution. The current term of office therefore expires in just over three months.

Presidential campaign in Uzbekistan should be getting into high gear. Political parties and initiative groups should be nominating candidates for president, arranging conferences, discussing programs, and so on. In the meantime, nothing of the sort is happening in the country. There is absolutely nothing to indicate that the campaign is already under way or about to begin. Local media outlets do no even mention the fact that the presidential term of office expires in January 2007. Officially registered political parties do not nominate candidates (by the law, they are supposed to do so six months in advance) and keep a low profile. Not even establishment of initiative groups of voters is reported. In short, nobody utters a word on the presidential campaign that should be launched in the country - or on the fact that it will be launched in the first place.

So, when shall the campaign be expected? If soon, how come no announcements are made?

What should be regarded as Day One?

Let us begin with the Constitution. This is what it has to say on the subject, "President of the Republic of Uzbekistan is elected by citizens of the Republic of Uzbekistan on the basis of the universal, equal, and direct suffrage, in a secret ballot, for seven years. The order of the election of the President is determined by the Law of the Republic of Uzbekistan."

The same article states that one and the same person is not supposed to be the president more than two terms in a row. Article 92 emphasizes that the president assumes the office the moment he takes the oath at the meeting of the parliament. ("I solemnly swear to serve the people of Uzbekistan, to abide by the Constitution and the laws of the republic, to guarantee citizens' rights and freedoms, and to conscientiously perform duties of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan.")

The Law "On election of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan" brings up the subject too, but the wording is slightly different. "The President of the Republic of Uzbekistan assumes office the moment he takes the oath at the meeting of the Oly Majlis but not later than two months after official announcement of the outcome of the election of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan by the Central Election Commission."

The president took the oath on January 22, 2000. Facing 250 deputies of the newly elected parliament, Karimov took the oath on the Constitution and the Koran and received the presidential identity card. His second term of office began right there and then. And since the Constitution makes it seven years exactly, the term of office expires on January 22 and someone else should replace Karimov as the head of state.

When is the campaign to begin?

By the Law "On election of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan", the beginning of the campaign is proclaimed by the Central Election Commission not later than three months before the term of office of the president expires.

Three months before the term of office expires makes it October 22, 2006. Going by the Constitution therefore, we see that the campaign should begin in Uzbekistan in a matter of days.

For some reason, however, no preparations are made for it. Puppet political parties (five of them officially registered in Uzbekistan) are not even thinking in terms of nomination even though they should have nominated candidates six months ago.

What if they are guided by some standard acts other than the Constitution and the Law "On election of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan"? What standard acts are they then?

A look at the election legislation reveals the following. The Law "On results of referendums and central principles of organization of state power" known as "constitutional" and adopted in 2002 includes an incredible provision: election of the new president should take place almost a year after his predecessor's term of office expires and not before it. Here is an excerpt, "Elections of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, legislative house of the Oly Majlis, Jokargy Kenes of the Republic of Karakalpakstan, representative bodies of state power of regions, districts, and cities are organized in the year when their terms of office expire - on the first Sunday of the third decade of December."

The law states that the president of Uzbekistan performs his duties until the new one assumes the office. It follows that the president will be performing his duties longer than the seven years specified by the Constitution, and namely 7 years and 11 months (judging by the Law "On results of referendums and central principles of organization of state power")! Add here another month between the election and assumption of office, and we end up with eight years exactly!

All of that would have been fine and dandy but for a single nuance. Not a single law is supposed to collide with the Constitution. (Article 16 of the Constitution states that "Not a single law or standard act should collide with the norms and principles of the Constitution".) And the latter makes it plain that presidents of the Republic of Uzbekistan are elected for seven years (365 days multiplied by 7) and not for 7 years and 11 months.

Let's have another look. "Elections of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan... are organized in the year when the term of office expire - on the first Sunday of the third decade of December."

The year when the term of office expires - what year is it? 2007, of course. Nobody questions that. It follows from the text of the Law "On results of referendums and central principles of organization of state power" that election of the president must take place in December that year. And the date? January 22, 2007. There are no two ways about it.

This is where a dilemma is encountered. Either the country will be living without the president between January 22 and late December, or these duties will be performed illegitimately by the current president whose term of office will have expired. Meaning that legitimacy of this president will be quite questionable.

So, where did this law appear from, the one that contradicts the Constitution in the matter of duration of presidency?

Endless story?

An answer to this question requires that we digress and consider the saga of endless extension of Karimov's terms of office.

Karimov became the head of the republic (the Uzbek Soviet Socialist Republic then) for the first time seventeen years ago. Plenum of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Uzbekistan elected him First Secretary of the Central Committee of the republican Communist Party instead of Rafik Sharimov. It happened on June 23, 1989. Karimov owes his election to Mikhail Gorbachev.

Session of the Supreme Soviet of the Uzbek Soviet Socialist Republic elected Karimov the President of the Uzbek Soviet Socialist Republic on March 24, 1990. Karimov was the only candidate nominated for president. He became the first republican president in the Soviet Union - and retained the position of the First Secretary of the Communist Party of Uzbekistan.

A nationwide ballot in the already sovereign Uzbekistan elected Karimov the president on December 24, 1991. Karimov polled 86% and became the president for five years. Erk leader Muhammad Salih was Karimov's only rival. Sources say that Salih polled 12.7% votes.

On March 26, 1995, Karimov arranged a referendum to extend his term of office without the troublesome elections until 2000. According to the Uzbek Central Election Commission, 99.6% of participants of the referendum voted "aye".

The second election of the president of Uzbekistan took place on January 9, 2000. Karimov came in first with 91.9% votes and was elected the president for another five-year term of office. He assumed the office at the Oly Majlis meeting on January 22. Central Election Commission chairman congratulated Karimov and gave him the presidential identity card.

The authorities ordered another term extension referendum a year later. The bulletins contained two questions: one on establishment of the parliament of two houses and the other on extension of the term of office for president from five to seven years. Western journalists wanted to know if the two additional years would apply to the president elected for five years. The authorities ducked the question and replied that the announcement would be made at a later date. It was never made. Uzbek media outlets were never permitted to discuss the matter.

The referendum took place on January 27, 2002. The authorities announced that more than 90% of the participants had voted "aye". It was then that the powers-that-be announced that the new term of office applied to the current president too, and that he would keep performing his duties until 2007.

Karimov participated in the referendum too. Elaborating on the necessity to extend the term of office, he said he was talking "the future of the republic" and not "the future of an individual." "Besides, I'm approaching the age when I should start thinking about who will continue the model of development of Uzbekistan I set in place in 1991," Karimov added.

The Law "On results of referendums and central principles of organization of state power" was adopted right after this referendum. Its preamble states, "The Law in question determines the main new provisions and amendments of the acting legislation brought about by the nationwide vote on January 27, 2002. Organized in accordance with the Law "On referendum in the Republic of Uzbekistan", it made decisions on two principal matters - on establishment of the parliament of two houses and on extension of the term of office of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan from five to seven years."

The implication was that the Constitution was to be amended too because the population approved as shown by the outcome of the referendum. There is, however, a "but" here. The questions of the referendum only concerned the parliament of two houses and seven years instead of five for the president. That the current president was to retain his position when his term of office expired under the Constitution was not even mentioned at the referendum. The provision was inserted in the law furtively. That makes it an attempt at anti-constitutional extension of Karimov's term of office.

Since the Constitution does not allow for extension of the term of office for presidents by referendums, the president is illegitimate. It's just that the subject is a strict taboo in Uzbekistan.

Variants of extension?

The authorities must have made up their mind on the date of the election. To be more exact, it is Karimov who has made up his mind, Karimov who will turn 69 come January. There will be no elections until the end of 2007. What then is the choice: stay or go? Despite the prudently adopted Law "On guarantees to the president" and abolition of capital punishment as of 2008, the risks of stepping down are not to be underestimated. Discounting the possibility of succession, let us take a look at what more or less legitimate means of staying on Karimov may employ.

First, there is the old trick with referendums on another extension of the term of office. Karimov utilized it on two occasions already. Why not utilize it again? It is whoever forms the Central Election Commission that wins elections. There is one other advantage to this means to be taken into account: a referendum may be organized any moment. By the Law "On referendum in the Republic of Uzbekistan", its date may be set for any day between 1.5 and 3 months after publication of the parliament's decision.

Second, introduction of martial law or state of emergency. That, however, requires something jeopardizing public order. Provoking it artificially is dangerous because the events may get out of hand.

In theory, it is also possible to appoint a figurehead of the president, shift the functions and powers that matter to the prime minister, and become the latter. It requires amendment of the Constitution and adoption of a number of laws, but amending the Constitution is not going to be a problem. Two thirds of lawmakers in both houses of the parliament vote "aye" and that is that. The parliament is tame, and pressing the necessary amendments through it will be easy. It is even possible to revise the provision that does not permit one and the same person to remain the president more than two times in a row (it will be even easier).

Fourth, there is nothing to prevent the authorities from launching a campaign of speculations over how it is Karimov's first term of office and not second. After all, it is going to be the first election of the president following amendment of the Constitution. (This is how Nursultan Nazarbayev pulled it off, and Emomali Rakhmonov intends to.)

It may be added that the fact that this is Karimov's second term of office is not even questioned in Uzbekistan. The first term of office was for five years but extended to eight, the second was for five years extended to seven. It is the second term of office that is expiring. All Uzbek newspapers admit it. On the other hand, ordinary logic does not apply to Uzbekistan. The president himself forms the executive power structures and appoints (directly or not) chairmen of the Central Election Commission and Constitutional Court, chairman of the upper house of the parliament, prosecutor general, prime minister, justice minister, interior minister, director of the National Security Service. It does not take a genius to guess on whose side all these state officials are playing.

Rivals?

One hears a lot of speculations on who will be the next president of Uzbekistan. Let us nevertheless try to decide who may be the president by the law. Is there a chance for a candidate the president does not approve of, for a candidate who is anything but successor chosen by the president himself?

The Constitution states, "A citizen of the Republic of Uzbekistan not younger than 35, who speaks the state language, and who has permanently lived in Uzbekistan for at least a decade before the election may become the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan." This last specification is clearly a reference to certain Russian oligarchs of Uzbek origin who are viewed as potential successor every now and then. On the other hand, the Constitution may be easily amended...

Let us proceed, "Citizens tried for crimes (once again, a reference to a certain Russia oligarch whose slate was mysteriously cleansed last year) and citizens against whom charges were pressed are not to be registered as candidates for President of the Republic of Uzbekistan."

This is a reference to Gulnara Karimova, the president's daughter who is suspected of presidential ambitions. It is the US authorities that want Karimova, not the Uzbek ones, but chances of becoming the president are fairly slim for a woman who is to be arrested the instance she sets foot on the American territory.

The acting legislation permits political parties and even individual to nominate candidates - in theory. In practice, however, this power is burdened with so many formalities that a candidate like that does not really stand a chance. Judge for yourselves.

"A political party may nominate a candidate for the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan when it is officially registered by the Justice Ministry of the Republic of Uzbekistan" (Article 24 of the Law "On election of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan").

In other words, only the political parties officially blessed by the Justice Ministry are supposed to nominate candidates for president. Justice ministers are appointed by the president. There is no need to say that not a single party of the opposition has been registered in Uzbekistan.

The same article of the same law states that initiative groups of citizens wield the power to nominate candidates too. "Every voter or a group of voters may set up an initiative group at least 300 people strong to nominate a candidate for the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan."

There is a similar "screen" in place for these candidates. "A representative of the initiative group of voters is expected to approach the Central Election Commission for official registration of the group at least 70 days before election of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan."

The Central Election Commission is not to be notified - the initiative group is expected to crave humbly for registration. If the candidate is inconvenient for some reason or other, the initiative group may forget about registration. The Central Election Commission will certainly find some errors in documents.

"The documents studied, the Central Election Commission has five days to make the decision on permitting the political party or initiative group of voters to participate..."

Even official registration of the party does not guarantee registration of its candidate for president. The Law "On election of the President" requires that the party in question collect signatures of at least 5% of registered voters (not more than 8% of voters registered in a single region of Uzbekistan). Ditto initiative groups of voters. Moreover, parties and initiative groups are permitted to begin collection of signatures only when their representative has been issued the official certificate of registration. Whatever signatures are collected before do not count. In other words, a political party may come up with 10,000,000 signatures in support of its candidate for president, but even that is not going to matter. The final decision on whether or not the candidate will run for president is to be made by the Central Election Commission.

Even if the impossible happened and an independent party or initiative group obtained the required registration and signatures, the regime still has a trick or two left. "How they vote does not matter. Who is doing the vote-count does," Josef Stalin was fond of saying.

Take a look at the Law "On the Central Election Commission of the Republic of Uzbekistan". "Members of the Central Election Commission are elected by the legislative house and senate of the Oly Majlis of the Republic of Uzbekistan, with recommendations from the Jokargy Kenes of the Republic of Karakalpakstan, and the regional and Tashkent kengashes of people's deputies.... Recommended by the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, chairman of the Central Election Commission is elected from among its members."

Now matter how serious dissatisfaction with the authorities is therefore, a candidate the president himself hasn't chosen for succession does not stand a chance.

In theory, decisions of the Central Election Commission may be questioned in the Supreme Court. As things stand, however, its chairman is appointed by the president too.

The president becomes illegitimate?

In short, the situation will become clear by October 22. The Central Election Commission is supposed to proclaim and launch a new campaign by then. Otherwise, it will be the guarantor of the Constitution defying it all over again and engineering his election under the law "On results of referendums and central principles of organization of state power" that collides with the Constitution.

As of January 22, the day the president's term of office will expire, performance of presidential functions by Karimov will be absolutely illegitimate. All decrees and resolutions to be issued after that, all laws signed, and all treaties made will be invalid. Remaining the president, Karimov will stand in violation of Article 159 of the Criminal Code of the Republic of Uzbekistan (conspiracy to usurp state power).